Oxford Business Group forecasts UAE GDP growth after Expo 2021

The latest research by Oxford Business Group has shown that Expo 2020 will provide Dubai with an excellent springboard after COVID-19 recovery and cross-sector reinvigoration.  Besides reviving footfall for the hospitality establishments and high-end malls, the upcoming exhibition will have a positive effect on the service economy and economic diversification of the emirate.

According to the COVID-19 Recovery Roadmap, the pre-pandemic target of 25,000,000 Expo visitors may be slightly ambitious. However as the UAE has been announced the most vaccinated country in the world, it spreads international confidence that it is a safe destination to visit

In addition to the visitor target, it was estimated that the event would generate AED 22.7B (USD 6.2B) in GDP during its 6-month period. This surge will be driven by consumer spending, benefitting event, retail and hospitality operators. OBG also reported that due to the introduction of 5% VAT on a number of goods and services, this revenue will become a source of significant funds for the further development plans of the UAE government. Moreover, investments across the emirate will be bolstered by recently announced 100% foreign ownership of businesses.

The main point is the legacy of the event, adding up to AED 62B (USD 16.9B) to the GDP of Dubai over time. It could play a big role in urban development, industrial diversification, creation of jobs and digitalization. As stated by consultancy EY, Expo 2020 could ensure the creation of 49,700 indirect and direct full-time jobs annually from 2013 to 2031.

District 2020, the epicenter of the exhibition, will become a new city focused on technology, sustainability and innovation. Major global companies including Accenture and Siemens are confirmed as tenants of the smart development.

Furthermore, OBG noted that the pre-pandemic status of Dubai as the fourth most-visited city in the world should see its tourism sector rebound on H2 2021, alongside the highly-anticipated Expo 2020. Dubai has already been named one of the world’s greatest places for 2021 by Time Magazine.

Besides the upcoming global multi-billion event, the emirate has a lot to offer to its visitors and residents. The attractions due to open by Q4 2021 include Ain Dubai, the world’s tallest Ferris wheel, St. Regis Dubai with an infinity pool on the 54th floor and the 795-key Royal Atlantis Resort & Residences with fine eateries from celebrity chefs. Moreover, there is also The Museum of the Future nearing completion. Illuminated by thousands of feet of Arabic calligraphy, it has been recently named one of the world’s most beautiful museums by National Geographic.

As well as this, efficient COVID-19 measures of Dubai and the launch of the remote-working visa may see the emirate achieve its goal of becoming the top business travel destination in the world but not as fast as it was expected before the pandemic. The OBG report also stated that the economy of Dubai is expected to rebound in 2021 and beyond.